Dumping Verisign positions

I recommend dumping Verisign (VRSN) until more is heard about the latest offerings from Google (GOOG). They have something brewing over in Google-land regarding a payment processor similar to PayPal, but don't be surprised if it ends up erroding some of VRSN's payment processing market share.

Energy is making a rebound after a horrible April/May where most energy stocks took a beating. I still like companies that support the energy industry such as refinery and drilling stocks. Western Gas Resources (WGR) and Pride (PDE) are such examples that have legs to do well despite rises and drops in energy prices. Barriers such as pollution compliance, local legislative pressure "not in my backyard", and infrastructure issues such access to ports and trains make building new refineries very difficult. As such refineries can be expected to make money despite the price swings in energy prices.

Drilling stocks should continue to do well as the need for oil is not likely to go away in the next 20 years. Oil reserves close to the earth's surface are being depleted so the need to invest in drilling capacity to dig deeper will grow over time. This area should see decent growth over the next 5 years.

Railroad stocks have been mentioned a number of times in the last month, the most recent, impressive mention of the sector was in the June 16th issue of the Wall Street Journal in the Money and Investing section. Many railroad stocks have been on a quiet rebound since their crash in April '05 and with the swirl regarding energy prices, many of these railroad stocks should have an impressive quarter. Most railroads have clauses in their shipping contracts that allow them to adjust shipping rates based on oil prices, typically in their favor. So the extra talk about energy prices soaring should help many of these cross-country shippers pad their books. Norfolk Southern is one that I've mentioned in the past and i still watch the stock but am not invested in it...currently.

mmm...BBQ

Who wants to meet up for BBQ this weekend? Madison Square Park has the champions of BBQ returning for the 3rd annual Blue Smoke BBQ block party.

Regional specialties like brisket, pulled pork, ribs, and even pig snoots will be smoked on site by 'cue legends all the way from Texas, North Carolina, and St. Louis among other top bbq destinations.

Admission to the block party is free, including live music and seminars. Food, beverages, and merchandise are available for purchase with proceeds benefiting the Madison Square Park Conservancy. Join the party on June 11th-12th from Noon-6:00p.m. in Madison Square Park and on Madison Avenue between 23rd & 26th Streets.

I went last year and it was phenomenal!!! It's a great event to go to with a bunch of friends. Go sit outside, drink some beer, eat some outstanding BBQ and get some sun. Last year I must have bumped into about 6 people I hadn't seen in forever, it was a mix of random friends or acquaintances from either high school or college.

My most immediate thought on stock is that Google's stock price is unsustainable. There is no way that Google's stock price can hold above $250 for 3 more quarters. I just don't see it happening. Even at the rate that advertisers are shifting from traditional media avenues like TV, radio, and print to Search Engine Marketing (SEM), that they should be valued the way they are. There will be a correction of the GOOG stock price. I would consider it a likely short target once it reaches $300. Sadly related stocks like INSP, YHOO, and FWHT will suffer as a result.

AOL's move to a free portal system was a good first step, but falls short on the homepage design. The big "sign up for aol" ad on the front just sucks. I believe that the Time Warner stock is a good value play around $16, so if it can just shed another $.50 from today's close at $16.66, it would be very tempting to me.
The strength of the movie business and the penetration of the cable business should pull this stock from the gutter within another year and add another $3 to the stock price. I believe this stock will surge to $20.

Spice Market is worth the hype

I just went to the restaurant Spice Market in New York City thinking it would be good. It was better than good. It was great. I was walking through the meat packing district and it was pretty early, maybe around 5PM but i was hungry and Spice Market looked like it was empty so I went in and asked for a table, preferably one by the window. The host told me the entire upstairs dining room was already had reserved, but we could sit either downstairs in the second dining room or at one of the bar tables. We chose to sit at one of the bar tables overlooking the kitchen and it was well worth it.

From my vantage point, I got to see the different chefs prepare 3 of the dishes on the menu. I could see everything from lobster tail cut in half and then presented in a half moon design, to the beef skewers (which we had and we excellent), to an interesting chicken dish which was served with some sort of tomato and a combination of red and yellow peppers.

I had the beef skewers which were tender but didn't taste of meat tenderizer. The skewers had a hint of spice to them and the dipping sauce definitely helped mask the spice, but i chose to eat the majority of the skewers sans sauce. I recommend this appetizer.

The peppered prawns were the only other appetizer that we ordered and this was the best prawn appetizer that I've had. The sauce on the prawns was full of aroma and flavor. The more than mild spice was not a detraction from the flavor in the sauce. Our waitress told us this was the best and most popular appetizer on the menu.

For the entrees that I ended up ordering the Crispy Cod servered on top of a combination of chili and basil which was good with a hint of spice underlying each bite of Cod. I also ordered the Beef Short Ribs which were very good, but did not seem as good as Short Ribs I've had from Craft (also in New York). As an aside, Craft SteakHouse in Vegas is a lesser restaurant compared to Craft New York IMHO. The Short Ribs were served over noodles in a broth and while they fell apart easily as good Short Ribs should, I did not find the broth to be adequate in amount or as tasty as Craft's Short Ribs. Nevertheless, these Short Ribs were very tasty and if you like Short Ribs you won't be disappointed.

On to some thoughts about stocks.

Stock Recaps:
VRSN is now $32.94 (based on June 3rd closing price) and I believe this stock could go as high as $35 *but* i no longer believe this stock represents an attractive enough value proposition to go in at the current price levels. As said earlier, if this stock heads south of $27 i would be inclined to buy it again.

ASTM proved that if i had been patient, then i would have made some money on the stock that i bought at $2.30 and this past week surpassed $2.70 which was my initial price target for that stock when i bought in. Too bad I got antsy and sold much earlier.

NIHD surpassed it's 52 week high and I have since sold the stock to take a 21% profit. I believe this is a solid stock with a bright future, but I do think the cyclical nature of this stock will bring it back to around $53 where i can buy in and flip the stock for another healthy profit. Watch for it, this company has a solid record of growing it's business and retaining it's user base, so recurring revenue should be healthy. It also has a great deal of cash on hand, so I feel like this stock is a long term winner.

Stock Recap

As predicted back around May 8th:
NIHD is up above $58, faster than my prediction. Right now it's at $60.64
VRSN is up above $32, I expected it to rebound to $31 by end of year, but it seems one month was all that it required
MNST just broke out from it's 50 day EMA, so it's up almost 4% today and has rebounded handsomely from $23 to almost $28.

Time for some profit taking!