Why do I forget I can't drink Rum and Cokes?

So i had my first Rum and Coke in about 6 months and now i remember why i don't drink those, they mess with my ability to sleep. I just had a great meal at Peking Duck House on the East side and it was excellent. I recommend the Peking Duck, but also had the Filet Mignon with Black Pepper, Double Wonder (Lobster and Prawns in a spicy sauce), Chinese Broccoli in Oyster Sauce (one of my all time favorites), and Ma La Chicken (Shredded chicken w. snow peas, waterchestnuts, red pepper, baby corn sauteed in szechuan, peppery sauce). It was a very good meal and highly recommend that place. I just wish i hadn't ordered a Rum and Coke, otherwise i'd be sleeping and not writing this.

Current Snapshot of investing ideas 20050320

Long Positions:
NIHD
NAT
MNST
ERTS
ATVI
VRSN

SWING Positions:
INSP
ISWI
ASTM

Coverage:
IR

Short:
BOOM
HRB

Reading Charts

I get questions from friends about methods for understanding more about how to pick stocks. I'm still refining my methods but one thing that i find to be essential part of the toolbox is an understanding of reading the stock charts. The MACD, Stochastic, and candlesticks.

Gaining an understanding of these indicators will help new investors understand where a stock is going. If your trading strategy is like mine, then you're into the swing trade. You need to understand the momentum of a stock. you need to understand the ebb and flow of a stock so you can get it at a relative low price and sell towards its peak.

latest stock musing ASTM

ASTM - Aastrom Biosciences INC
Currently trading around $2.45/share. According to my chart research (stockcharts.com), this stock has hit a secondary price support level, the first price support level being at $2.70. What does this mean in english? Time to buy is now. Target your exit around $2.90 which i imagine will coincide with any news surrounding the ratification of state government spending in NY and Massachusetts state. The downside is risk is that the news could be negative and the states may choose to not support such spending. Risk level on this is moderate, but the price/profit potential is 20% or higher depending on whether you wait for the price to go to $3.10 rather than my recommended ~$2.90

A price support level is a stock price that investors believe the stock becomes a good value and will start to purchase the stock, thereby supporting the stock and not allowing the price to drop.

Now this is different than from INSP which i still recommend as a buy, and it's even cheaper now ($38/share) than when i sent out my first heads up email (40.50/share). INSP reached the first price support level, which means it should bounce back up from that price and appreciate value. It turns out that INSP had a little more room to go down and hit the secondary price support level. I still maintain that this stock should jump to about $44 based on earnings news.

My Birthday

Thanks to all of you who wished me happy birthday. What i want for my birthday next year is some sort of iPod integration kit to go with my car. It would probably cost a pretty penny. You readers better start clicking those google ads on the lower right, or I'm never going to get one.

Here's my present to you, new stock ideas on my birthday:
GOOG - Google, watching to see if it drops to 165, seems to have a level of support there, pricey, but interesting. It seems all the net stocks are beaten down including YHOO, EBAY, AMZN, as a group this may be prime time to buy.

BBBY - Bed Bath and Beyond, seems that with all the real estate changing hands the last 5 years someone other than the realtors should be doing well. As one of the leaders in providing housewares, BBBY is poised to gain on this real estate boom.

HRB - H&R Block, seems like a probable short candidate because of their shrinking market share in the tax preparation market and their high exposure to being overextended on non-prime mortgages.

I like CVX, XOM, and BUD for their solid history of dividends growth. If you want to travel the road slow and steady i would investigate any of these. Wait for CVX to drop to $57 or below. Wait for XOM @ $59. BUD seems ripe for buying IMHO @ current levels.

As always I'm high on ISWI until it proves me wrong.

ISWI - International Sports Wagering

I LOVE THIS STOCK, this stock is a winner and it's made money for me and John G. I turned John on to this stock about 4 months ago and he's been making money off it.

This stock is going to grow and go up over time because the business model is solid and the barriers to entry are significant.

The business is based on an exchange model where ISWI basically allows people to bet on any event of almost any sporting event.

Example: Your watching a basketball game and Iverson gets fouled trying to make a shot. He goes to the foul line. ISWI enables people to bet on whether or not he's going to make the free throws or not. People bet against other people who are in the system. Essentially ISWI never has to cover a bet, and it just collects a percentage of each bet placed. It has an international patent on this technology, which makes it hard for anyone to imitate and compete with them.

The stock is starting to come down from it's all time high of $7.32. The last time i took up a large position was at $5.80. I'm taking another position again now at $6.23. I'm hoping for it to spike to around $6.90 in the next week or two. It may take a month but i have high confidence that i won't lose money.

Imagine you take a $10,000 position on this stock @6.20 that would get you a position of about 1600 shares. You target your sale around $6.90. That will yield you about 11% gain.

Do this from your IRA account like i do and the tax is deferred and your IRA account will grow faster than if this was a normal brokerage account.

Lyricsdog.com the place to look up song lyrics

So a friend of mine started a website so that you could look up song lyrics. It's good because it's simple to use and fast. I only looked up 10 things on it, and the results were hit or miss. It seemed to be less an issue of its ability to search and more an issue the number of songs catalogued in the engine. I'm sure it will grow the number of songs it has catalogued soon. give it a try. Lyricsdog

Current Snapshot of investing ideas

Long Positions:
NIHD
NAT
MNST
ERTS
ATVI
VRSN

SWING Positions:
INSP
ISWI


Notes on some of the Positions listed above
NIHD - Nextel International has digital network support for wireless markets in Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, and Peru. It is outpacing the kind of market growth rate that the US wireless market was going through in 1999-2000. Growth rate will slow as it did in the US market but NIHD is poised to be the leader in this market space. It is addressing subscriber churn and keeping those numbers down. Solid growth prospects. I doubt it will double in value as it did in 2004, but i would imagine it can get to 63 by end of the year.

MNST - Monster is the leader in the online job listings space. Solid acquisition target by a major player looking to get listings revenue like ebay or msn. A newspaper company may emerge and decide to buy MNST. The company should continue to dominate the online job listings space for at least another year or two. It remains to be seen if another listings engine like Craigs List will

ERTS - Eletronic Arts, leader in game development for consoles. This company already has established a series of franchises in the sports arena and has a solid lock on the NFL, NBA, and is trying to get exclusive rights to the MLB. If it does then it will have a trifecta on exclusive rights to represent images of the top 3 major sports leagues in their games. This company is also actively looking to diversify into action and role playing games by taking stakes in other companies like UbiSoft (makers of Tom Clancy series of strategy role playing games). It is also looking to get in the high margin area of downloadable phone games. As the next generation of game consoles comes out, ERTS should be well positioned to gain from the renewed interest in gaming. Free cash flow, partnership with console makers, and number of desireable franchises to port will all come into play and make it more difficult for start-ups or smaller game development companies to compete.

ATVI - Activision, a strong runner-up in the game development space. This company is also very active in game development for mobile phones. This company trades at a much lower P/E compared to peers in the industry such as ERTS, TTWO, MSFT. It has fewer power franchises than EA in the game console area but is poised to grow.

Kung fu and china, not in that order

Right now all my energy and commodity ideas are running out of steam. China is starting to show signs of slowing down and anything i'm invested in is beyond the point of value investing, so i need new ideas.

I want to see this movie Kung Fu Hustle.

I got this Kung Faux video a while ago and still recommend it. They also have a nice looking website.